Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc open with the retail news of the week: the latest twist in the U.S. TikTok deal, fresh tariff/geopolitical volatility, Amazon noting tariff-driven price creep, and Gap’s new Chief Entertainment Officer role. Steve then delivers his 2026 retail predictions, from the “Great Concentration” and agentic AI to faster delivery, uneven luxury, resale momentum, wellness, and a bold Sephora–Kohl’s call. They close with Lululemon’s sheer-product debacle, congrats to prior guest on the podcast Walmart's Chris Nicholas, and bond-market jitters “around the corner.”
Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc kick off their annual predictions episode with a fast-moving review of the retail news of the week. They begin with the long-delayed U.S. TikTok deal finally reaching resolution, noting how deeply TikTok now influences product discovery, cultural trends, and transactional commerce through TikTok Shops. While the platform remains critical for retailers, both hosts raise concerns around privacy, political influence, and how algorithmic control may evolve under new ownership.
The conversation then turns to tariff volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, highlighting how unpredictable trade policy continues to make planning difficult for retailers. Steve points out that Amazon is already seeing tariff-driven price increases creep into both its first-party and marketplace businesses, reinforcing how global policy decisions are now flowing directly into consumer pricing. They also discuss Gap’s creation of a Chief Entertainment Officer role, using it as a signal that retailers are increasingly seeking growth through media, licensing, and brand-driven content ecosystems rather than traditional merchandising alone.
From there, Steve delivers his provocative 2026 retail predictions. He argues that the “Great Concentration” will continue, with Amazon, Walmart, and Costco capturing a disproportionate share of both sales growth and profits. This concentration fuels a powerful investment flywheel that makes it increasingly difficult for mid-tier retailers to compete. He predicts a mixed year for major turnarounds, with some traction at Gap and Nike, limited progress at Macy’s, and deeper structural challenges for Target.
AI emerges as one of the most consequential themes, with Steve describing 2026 as a truly “agentic” year. Search, shopping, and discovery are rapidly shifting toward AI-driven experiences, creating massive innovation but also high risk of disintermediation for brands that fail to adapt. Physical stores, he argues, will matter more for experiential brands and less for undifferentiated ones, accelerating the bifurcation between meaningful store concepts and those that lack a clear role.
Steve also predicts intensifying competition in last-mile delivery, as Amazon and Walmart push same-day and narrow delivery windows even further, especially in grocery and essentials. Luxury faces an uneven future, with Saks Global likely emerging from bankruptcy smaller and fragile, and growth concentrated among a few elite brands. Resale, however, finally appears poised for breakout momentum, driven by affordability pressures and improving business models across the sector. Wellness and longevity become a new growth frontier, extending far beyond groceries into subscriptions, services, and lifestyle ecosystems.
The episode closes with their “remarkable” stories of the week and a look around the corner, led by Lululemon’s latest product misstep involving see-through apparel and a tone-deaf customer response. Michael highlights the promotion of former guest Chris Nicholas to lead Walmart International, while Steve flags growing bond-market volatility as a key macro signal to watch.