Remarkable Retail

Behind the scenes of retail reporting with CNBC’s Lauren Thomas

Episode Summary

This week we welcome CNBC's ace retail reporter Lauren Thomas, who talks about the journey into her current position, what her beat is all about, and the trade craft of choosing and developing stories. We also dip into what's surprised her about the retail industry and the evolving nature of consumer preferences. Lastly we discuss the challenges of understanding retailer performance as we transition into the post-COVID economy, as well as what's on her radar screen for the future.

Episode Notes

This week we welcome CNBC's ace retail reporter Lauren Thomas, who talks about the journey into her current position, what her beat is all about, and the trade craft of choosing and developing stories. We also dip into what's surprised her about the retail industry and the evolving nature of consumer preferences. Lastly we discuss the challenges of understanding retailer performance as we transition into the post-COVID economy, as well as what's on her radar screen for the future.

Then we move on to our fast-paced weekly segment   “Remarkable or Forgettable?” where we give our hot takes on retail headlines, and deem them wow-worthy, best ignored or somewhere in between. This week's big stories include the prediction that 80,000 stores will close within 5 years, while several big brands announce aggressive store opening plans, an uptick in mall vacancy rates at the same time Amazon converts some into distribution centers, Best Buy pilots a new membership program and Target devotes $2 billion to black-owned businesses.  

Join us Tuesday, April 13th at 5pm EST for our Virtual Book Launch on Zoom as we celebrate the release of Steve's  new book with special guests Seth Godin, Sucharita Kodali and many more. Space is limited, so please register  here ASAP.


To order Remarkable Retail click below.

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Lauren Thomas   is a reporter for CNBC in New York covering retail and retail real estate. She joined in January 2017 after graduating from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where she studied Business Journalism and Spanish. Thomas previously held internships at CNBC in San Francisco, Bloomberg and TheStreet. She was born in South Carolina and is the oldest of five kids. 

Steve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his       website.    The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book  Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption will be released April 13th and is now available for preorder at  Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a      Forbes senior contributor and on       Twitter and       LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel      here.


Michael LeBlanc  is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice.   He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.  Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada’s top retail industry podcast,       The Voice of Retail, plus        Global E-Commerce Tech Talks  and       The Food Professor  with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois.  You can learn more about Michael       here  or on       LinkedIn. 

Episode Transcription

Michael LeBlanc 00:05

Remarkable Retail podcast Season 2, Episode 11. I'm Michael LeBlanc.

Steve Dennis 00:10

And I'm Steve Dennis.

Michael LeBlanc 00:12

Well, Steve, this Episode goes to 11, and we've got a great guest joining us, Lauren Thomas from CNBC. So, thanks for facilitating that introduction. I think you two have met. I haven't had the privilege, but I do follow her work on, on CNBC and her coverage of Retail Beat.

Steve Dennis 00:28

Yeah, I have known Lauren for I don't know for two or three years, at this point. So, I chat with her every once in a while.  She's nice enough to quote me if on the off chance I say something halfway intelligible. So,

Michael LeBlanc 00:41

Well, let's talk about that for a little bit.  Because one of the reasons we wanted to talk to a retail reporter, ‘A’ was to kind of get an outside looking in, kind of perspective on what's going on in retail, and what she thinks is important. Because both outside looking in and at the 10,000 foot level, right. She's covering a lot of stuff, looking at a lot of different things. So, what, what she thinks is interesting, and where that things are happening. I thought was it, was, was a good, a good opportunity to interview someone about it. But also, I thought I've been in the position, I don't know about you. But I've been in the position pre-being on my own and being a podcaster being interacting. 

Steve Dennis 01:18

Yeah.

Michael LeBlanc 01:18

You know, talking to the media. I just think it's good to get their perspective. Because sometimes, you know, depending on the size of the organization you're going through coms people and it's tough to get to you.  Maybe your story doesn't want to be told or maybe you'd love to tell your story and don't know how. 

Steve Dennis 01:32

Yeah.

Michael LeBlanc 01:32

What's been your experience talking to the media bot as you know, Steve Dennis, the Author and a Consultant. But you know even in your, in your past life what's ,what's been your experience?

Steve Dennis 01:42

Well, I have been in kind of a informal spokesperson role a couple of times, or participated in bigger press events. And in some ways, I think it's, it's not that different than being out on my own and being the source. Which is, I think a good reporter is very mindful of his or her audience and what they're most interested in.  Which isn't necessarily lined up with the story the company wants to tell. So, I think to make it effective and I'm sure plenty of public relations people are going to just like roll their eyes, because it's like so obvious. But I think you really have to think about what, what is in it for the publication to feature your story. So, you know, sometimes things are just super narrow; it doesn't appeal to a wide enough audience because you know, it's about ultimately ratings or clicks or what have you. Sometimes it's finding that interesting angle. Because you know, you think about all the retailers and all the stuff they're doing like there's a million dinner stories probably literally every day, every week. So, its a million stories.

Michael LeBlanc  02:49

A million stories in a Naked City, right?

Steve Dennis  02:51

Yeah, and what's interesting you know or what might have been interesting to me when I was in a certain job it is not necessarily interesting to, to a heck of a lot of people. So, sometimes it's just a matter of like, well that's not really a story. But other times it might be a story but you have to find the right, the right angle. I think the other thing too which is really helpful, which of course is the public relations communications people, PR firms etc. do it all the time is building those relationships because I think,

Michael LeBlanc  03:14

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  03:15

I've definitely had the situation where all of a sudden you know, we're really gung-ho on, on getting some coverage for something. And it's like well, great, like you never, I never heard from you before.

Michael LeBlanc 03:26

Or you didn't return my call, right? 

Steve Dennis 03:27

Or you didn't return my call.

Michael LeBlanc 03:28

Right.

Steve Dennis 03:28

Or you were a source for a story. So, I think you've got to play the long game in terms of building those relationships.  And you know, I'll generally talk, not today, but you know, since I've been doing this as opposed to working for a big company. You know, I'm generally willing to, to talk to almost any reporter and try to help them out even if there isn't anything like right, that moment, selfishly.

Michael LeBlanc 03:28

Yeah.

Steve Dennis 03:50

For me. And so, I suspect whether you're a big company or small company, figuring out who are the most important, most Influential people in the press is worth doing, in cultivating those relationships. And just trying to figure out, you know, what is it really that's going to be of interest to, to their readers, or viewers.

Michael LeBlanc 04:08

Yeah, it's you know, it's great advice I've had both the hat on with being a retailer and also being an advocate speaking on behalf of the entire industry and, and you're right about facilitating and fostering relationships because sometimes you're just talking on, on what the reporter is calling "background". 

Steve Dennis 04:23

Right.

Michael LeBlanc 04:23

In other words, I don't understand how curbside is so difficult, explain that to me? Because you know, you know, even the good retail reporters don't live and breathe the world of retail the way you and I do or the operators do. So, that's, that is really beneficial. 

What, let me ask you this question. What are your one or two or maybe even three tips for when you're being interviewed, how to approach it? Now, you know, many of our listeners may have had media training, but I know I've got my own tricks and tips but when, as you're being interviewed by media like Lauren and other folks, how do you approach that? What do you, would need to get prepared? Do you take it as it goes? Or do you have notes, what do you do?

Steve Dennis 05:01

It would be to the extent I know what they want to talk about.  l usually, I would because of the, you know, looking in a voicemail message or emailed me or whatever and texted me. Yeah, I try to have, you know, try to crystallize my thoughts. Because you know, they're like everybody you know, they're busy. They may be talking to 10 other people, they may be on a deadline, right? So, I think being really efficient, with your time by trying to crystallize your message. 

The second thing, which I don't want to make sound too sinister. But I think when I first started talking to the Press, when I was out on my own, like, I didn't really think that I don't like. I don't know what they're going to quote. You know, like, I may think, oh, this is really interesting, and that's what they're going to quote. But I think you just have to be careful, kind of loose lips sink ships, just, 

Michael LeBlanc 05:41

Yeah.

Steve Dennis 05:41

You really need to be mindful. And you know, and I think good reporters are not going to, you know, sabotage you on that. But,

Michael LeBlanc 05:48

Yeah.

Steve Dennis 05:48

It's not just a casual conversation with friends over a beer or something, you know.

Michael LeBlanc 05:52

Right. It is a two way.

Steve Dennis 05:53

They are on a mission.

Michael LeBlanc 05:53

It’s very good point. It's a very good point, it is a two-way street, they need something from you and you need something from them. And the, as you said, the good reporters will tell you, “Listen this is all on the record". So, you know, you do have to be thoughtful, right? That's for sure. 

Michael LeBlanc 06:07

I mean, one of the things I've done particularly is, is listen. And it's a funny, you know, it's a funny piece of advice, but I, I listen to many interviews, or I talk to the folks and retailers and, and they don't listen to the questions. They've got their three key speaking points that they want to get across. And they don't listen to what they're being asked. And that, you know, listening to people and, and what they talk about is really helpful in terms of, you know, understanding what and how. There's some really interesting stuff there. So, that, that would be my big piece of advice over and above, you know, what your comps people will tell you in a standpoint and assume everything's on the record. And be careful, but also be interesting, right? Like, you got to say something interesting, or else

Steve Dennis  06:50

Oh right, right. It's not, it's not a, you're not defending your PhD thesis on the future of Omni channel or whatever. You know, you're, you're giving a soundbite or something that can be distilled down into the broader context of the story. 

The only last thing I'd add kind of following up on your point is, I think its, its worth probing, you know, if they ask them a question, there may be more behind the question. And they may, they may not, not because they're trying to trick you or anything, but it may be that you know, they've heard something from somebody else and they're trying to test your knowledge; or, or you know, maybe they've got a really different angle on the way you would see it. So, rather than just start blathering, I think it's you know, often useful just to say, hey, what you know, like, tell me a little bit more, is there, do you have a hypothesis or an angle on, on the story? And you know, usually get a little bit more color before you just start chatting away.

Michael LeBlanc  07:39

Listen. So, we've got one of the best on with us, and I, I follow Lauren, and she covers the biggest stories and, and again, thank you for, for connecting us. So, let's, let's kick it off. Let's talk to Lauren Thomas from CNBC.

Steve Dennis  07:53

Well, Michael and I are delighted to welcome CNBC's Lauren Thomas to the Remarkable Retail podcast. Lauren, thanks for joining us. How are you doing today?

Lauren Thomas  08:03

Good. Thanks so much for having me. It’s a rainy day in, in New York City, but happy to be here.

Steve Dennis  08:10

Well, Michael, and I always get into, because he's in Toronto, and I'm in Dallas. And of course we talk to people

Lauren Thomas  08:14

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  08:14

All over the world, we often have very different, very different weather going on. But, 

Lauren Thomas  08:19

Exactly.

Steve Dennis  08:20

Lauren, we would love to just start out, if you could just tell us a bit about yourself and what you do. And, and I guess how you ended up in the primo retail reporter position at a relatively early age. At least, relative or relative to me certainly.

Lauren Thomas  08:40

Of course, once again, thank you both for having me. And yeah, I mean, CNBC is my first job out of college. So, I've been with the company for a little over four years, I think it is, at this point in time.  And for most of that time covering retail.  In college so, I went to the University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. I'm originally from South Carolina so I didn't stay true I guess to my, my hometown states alma mater. But decided to jump over the border and went to UNC, where I studied both Business and Journalism. I, I knew that I really enjoyed writing. So, it was a matter of figuring out I guess how to turn that into a fulltime career and journalism seemed to be the logical route. 

I met, met a professor at UNC actually early on, who really convinced me that business journalism and financial journalism was, was a career worth pursuing. And in his mind, there weren't many, you know, really trained business journalists out there today. And that it was just it, you know, if I started early, I guess in pursuing some sort of degree where I'm studying both business and journalism, you know, that I would maybe be a bit above my, my peers and the competition out there. 

And yeah, and I mean, I was lucky to have some internships during college, actually one at CNBC, I studied at Bloomberg one summer as well. And just, just really enjoyed kind of the pace and the stories that come with, with financial news and digging into SEC filings and quarterly earnings reports and that sort of thing. So, when I, when I ended up accepting a job at CNBC out of college, and this was a bit by luck that the retail reporter at the time happened to be leaving. So, timing was really on my side, in that case, because I started out just doing more general assignment coverage. That's often how you start out at CNBC that you get a taste of everything, before you really develop a beat within the company. 

And so, I just kind of stepped in and, and was helping her, cover her and fill her shoes, you know, in the interim, while they were looking to fill that role. And they ended up offering me the Retail Reporter job full time. Which I graciously accepted. Really, I love, love covering this industry, because it is so consumer facing and something that I feel like most anyone and everyone can relate to. We all shop. 

Steve Dennis  11:11

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas  11:12

And so, I you know, I think a lot of journalists that cover retail would, would agree that that's one of the big appeals to it. And yeah, just how it can touch so many people in the stories, you know, even if they are financial related, obviously, as they are at CNBC. They're still very relevant to so many people. So, yeah, I've been doing that ever since then, again, I couldn't have ever in college imagined, you know, I'm going to cover retail full-time.

Steve Dennis  11:39

Right.

Lauren Thomas  11:40

But certainly, certainly it is an industry that, that appeals to me.

Steve Dennis  11:44

And was it hard for you to kind of get up to speed? It's such a, I mean Michael, and I often say not in the context of journalism, per se, but just you know, retail is such a big, diverse industry. So, it's hard enough, even if you've been at it for a long, long time. Was it, was it hard for you to get up to speed or how did you go about building that knowledge base?

Lauren Thomas 12:01

You know, obviously, there are like decades where some of these department stores, Sears. I mean, you know, well, the history of some of these companies dates back to like the early 1900s. And, you know, me stepping into this, this beat in the, you know, in the 2000s, is there was a lot to learn, is there was a lot to learn. So, a lot of my early days, I think were spent talking to people, you know, like yourself, that are really knowledgeable on this industry. 

And then as I kind of figured out the companies that I would cover closely, you know, the day-to day, and I really wanted to follow because I knew those were the ones that the CNBC audience was most interested in, I really spent time getting up to speed with people within the business, kind of hearing the story from folks on the communication side. But yeah, I mean, just, just trying to read and learn as much as possible. I have a stack of books in my apartment. You know, the history of Department stores the book on Sears.  History of malls and Steve's book in the stack as well, but so a lot of reading.

Steve Dennis  13:08

You really only need mine. That's, that's my process.

Lauren Thomas  13:10

Yeah, You know honestly, honestly.

Steve Dennis  13:16

Yeah, save you a lot of time.

Michael LeBlanc  13:16

Streamline the whole process. Lauren streamline the whole process.

Lauren Thomas  13:16

Yeah, 20 books in one. No really, though, a lot of weekend reading. Yeah, and so, you got to learn the lingo and, and all of that as well. So, it takes time and I, I by no means would call myself, you know, 100% expert today, but.

Michael LeBlanc  13:34

Listening to your background, it reminds me of that saying “the harder I work, the luckier I get". So, it's clear you.

Lauren Thomas  13:38

Yeah.

Michael LeBlanc  13:39

Right. I mean, you got a 

Lauren Thomas  13:40

Yeah.

Michael LeBlanc  13:41

Pretty, a pretty great beat. But it sounds like you work really hard for it. And can we dip into your tradecraft for a little bit and you know, when you as a reporter, you know you mentioned how dynamic the industry was that, that can work for you or against you, so to speak. There's so much going on. Some stories are interesting, but not important. Some are interesting, but kind of a distraction. And I mean, we're simple podcasters and we get sometimes dozens of, of ‘Hey, we got great news. We're coming out with something’, like stories to follow. How do you, you know, in your tradecraft and training, how do you, how do you sort through what you're going to focus on?  You mentioned, you know, what you think the CNBC audience or readers and listeners and online surfers are going to be interested in. So, take me through a little bit of that. How do you and where do you start that journey? And how do you think about it?

Lauren Thomas  14:28

Yeah, and I mean, it really, it you know, one day you can think that you're, you're going to be working on something. And you've got one project you're hoping to chip away at and then suddenly, you know, the news cycle does a 180, you know, and that suddenly changes. So, there's, there's definitely a lot of that within my field. You know, journalists can all really relate. But yeah, I mean, I think again at CNBC, our bread and butter is, is business news. 

So, what does that look like? I mean, for me, it's the big publicly traded retailers that I cover like Macy's, like Nike, Lululemon, Gap. I know that every quarter I have to cover their earnings for example. So, that's, that's one story, I kind of check that box. Its earnings coverage does take up a big chunk of my time. And investor meetings and meetings with shareholders are another thing that I definitely, you know, want to make sure that I'm covering again, for those big public retailers that, that I care about. 

I kind of have a spreadsheet that I'm constantly checking with market caps, you know, just to see how that ebbed and flowed. Because that does play into some of my sorting out my coverage and, and what I want to focus on. Because some of these names, I mean, Steve, you can potentially relate or attest to this, I forget that some of these companies like you might think you have some of these holding companies like a Capri or you know, they might not mean a lot I guess to you when you first hear it, but then you look at their market cap and you're like, oh, they're, they're pretty big. So, that, you know, this is some, something that I need to pay attention to. Again, from more of this, like an investor lens. 

But yeah, beyond that, I mean, I, I think you really, you have to look at the bigger like what's, what's going on in the news? So right now, you know, this, Georgia Voting Law, for example, is really something that at CNBC as a whole is paying attention to.  And as CEOs, you know, are chiming in and more companies are issuing statements as it relates to that.  So, you know, then I'm asked within the organization, you know, to make sure that I'm, I'm looking at, again, like at Nike or a Coca Cola or Pepsi, Home Depot. Like what are these companies saying? And so, that ties into this bigger national news story and then trying to find the retail angle within that; or during the pandemic as stimulus checks have, have been given out, you know, as a as a Retail Consumer reporter, it's looking into okay, where's that money going? And what are they spending that on? So, it's Yeah, it's constantly changing. I mean, this past year, with COVID is kind of thrown us all this.

Michael LeBlanc 17:07

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas 17:07

This curveball and coverage that, that we never could have anticipated. There, there have been times when it's just consistently a lot of bankruptcies happening in retail. And they all seem sort of seemed to hit at once. So, there's, there's a wave of those sorts of stories. So, really ebbs and flows. But again, I think like day-to-day I have in my mind you know the core companies that I focus on, that I know are bigger and just are really relevant with our readers. And so, that's, that's what I'm making sure that I'm, I'm not missing anything there. 

One interesting thing to just to really quickly build on that kind of the, the fitness space, that was something you know, pre-pandemic, I didn't really cover fitness equipment makers but you have Peloton all of a sudden kind of explode in popularity. So, now, Peloton companies like Peloton and Tonal and Hydro, Mirror which was acquired by Lululemon during the pandemic, those were kind of added into my universe of coverage. Again, you know, I never could have predicted that but, with this, everyone suddenly working out at home, those businesses are a lot more relevant. So, just you know another example of how that is really constantly changing.

Michael LeBlanc  18:21

So, it, it sounds like you would put down a kind of a foundation of reporting on you know, the, the public information you can access, you're listening to earnings calls, and you're. 

Lauren Thomas 18:30

Right.

Michael LeBlanc 18:30

And you're doing that kind of foundational reporting stuff just to kind of track and create, in your own mind even just indexes, who's doing well, who's doing less well, who's doing something interesting. Now that also I'm sure involves calling folks up and give me,you can give me some advice or advice to the listeners, when they see your name in the email or they see your name on a call. I mean, that listen, not everybody wants their story to be told in such a way and. 

Lauren Thomas  18:55

Right.

Michael LeBlanc  18:55

You I'm sure you run into that, right. Sometimes it's like I'd really not rather talk about it. But, talk about that element of your reporting, like a from an advice perspective.  If retailers see your name on the call display and maybe it's not through the comms people but.

Lauren Thomas  19:10

Sure.

Michael LeBlanc  19:10

Give me a sense of how you work through that?

Lauren Thomas  19:13

Yeah, no, that's a, a great question. Because I think as a journalist that's something you think about a lot is like how you're perceived and, and how you know, how other people think about you or yeah, like you said that what they're thinking when they see your name pop-up or your, your email is attached to a subject line. I have just been talking to a friend the other day, actually about this idea that I do feel like you know, sometimes even with friends that there's like a wall that's, that's.

Michael LeBlanc  19:41

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas  19:41

Put up just because they're talking to a journalist, and there's a reporter in the room.  And I often have friends joke at dinners and, and when we're grabbing coffee, like "Oh, this is off the record".

Michael LeBlanc  19:51

No such thing. There's no such thing as off the record.

Lauren Thomas  19:53

Yeah.

Michael LeBlanc  19:54

Indications until you tell us. That's, right, no such thing. Does it exist? Does it?

Lauren Thomas  19:58

Yeah. I think, I think it exists or at least I try to make sure that they believe me when I say that it exists.

Michael LeBlanc  20:04

At least on background, right? At least some of the some of the conversations you have are on background, right?

Lauren Thomas  20:07

Oh, absolutely, on background. And yeah, I mean, that's an important distinction to know what's, what's on background? What's off the record? But I do, I mean, I think building trust in relationships, that's something that I aspire to do. I guess, with a lot of my sources and resources, people that I know within the industry. But to go back to your question, I mean, if it's like a cold call, or an initial conversation with someone, I think, you know, making sure that they know and again, this might be hard to do, because there is a perception of journalists that some people might believe for better or for worse, but making sure they know that this, this conversation is totally just "off the record" on background. I literally just want to say, ‘Hi’, and get to know you a little bit. I mean, I think that's, that's something that I try to do in those initial conversations like, this is not for a story, you know, lay the ground rules I guess there the framework, there for the conversation, that it's, it's not for anything. Not for quotes, I mean, I, I find that that's the best way to go. 

And then moving forward, okay, maybe we have a second call, if there's something that you said that, that you allow me to, to poke around on, or that we could potentially turn to a, turn into a story or an anecdote or something down the road, and then could follow-up for some sort of, you know, thoughts or quotes to be included in a piece.

But it's, it's tough. I mean, I again, I try to come across as, as, I never want to be perceived as a, as a threat, per se, I guess I mean, that maybe other reporters think differently. But I've, I found that, that's not the best way to go. I guess. And I would rather, you know, just make sure that we're, we're on a common ground. And there's an understanding of what the purpose of the conversation is. Because I think that's where you often run into maybe the most trouble, when there is a misunderstanding. And, and, maybe that person does think that you're, you're, you're only reaching out for a, you know, a story or quotes. You know, you want to quote them as this employee in a, in a Best Buy, store, whatever it might be.

Michael LeBlanc  22:13

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Lauren Thomas  22:13

You know, and just totally out them. So, but it's tough, I mean, I've had my fair share of messages, and I'm sure will continue to where people just don't want to talk. And I totally understand that. So, I think a lot of it is, it boils down to persistence.  I use LinkedIn daily, probably, you know, maybe, maybe too much. But spend a lot of time on LinkedIn, I think it's a great resource to look for people, whether they're, you know, internal, you know, an employee, or just public relations folks that are that are worth getting to know, or consultants and that sort of thing. So, it's a, it's a lot of persistence until you find, find the right folks.

Steve Dennis  22:51

So, so, now that you've been at this for several years, and, and I mean, gone through COVID. You've covered a wide range of different stories, companies, sectors, etc., are there a few things that have surprised you about the industry? And maybe some things that perhaps you think don't get quite enough attention?

Lauren Thomas  23:13

Yeah, so a few things come to mind initially on that front. I think one of them is and I mean, I'm a consumer, like I was saying earlier, we're all, we all shop. And, and so that's how our kind of our connection to the retail world. But, I think it surprised me, just how quickly consumers tastes can evolve. And, and then in turn, you know, a lot of what we're following is what do retailers, what are they doing; or maybe the lack of, of what they're doing to adapt to that? But yeah, just the, the quick changing nature I guess of, of consumers and what you know. They might be buying something one day or one style of apparel is, is really in vogue one day and then the next day it's out. So, I think that's, that's one thing that I was pretty, I guess, I don't know, kind of sparked my, my curiosity a bit. 

And, you know, as a reporter, I see a lot of these surveys and I'm constantly you know, people are sending me data or I'm poking around for data. And, and that's one thing that I think I've always found pretty fascinating is just the, the nature of, of that taste, you know, consumer tastes and how that's evolving and obviously, that's, that ultimately is going to entail where they want to shop and how they want to shop and all that sort, sort of stuff, which I know you're, Steve, you, you know, well, obviously, I know that's kind of a core component of your book. 

But yeah, I would say that's, that's one thing. Again, I think the pandemic has, has proven to us you know, they where there shopping just how quickly that can change and kind of the growing acceptance and, and really getting comfortable with buying online. I think that it's, it's surprised me in some ways, like ordering groceries. For example. I think we're starting to see some data that, that has really, that really picked up during the pandemic, but it looks like that might stick you know, longer term. And so where online grocery shopping, you know, might become a permanent behavior for more people than we initially expected. So, I think again, just that's kind of the education component there maybe shocked me a little bit of how, how quickly, you know, customers are sticking with that.

Steve Dennis  25:26

Well, I was going to say is, is, so I would love them in the couple minutes we have left I'd love just to get maybe.

Lauren Thomas 25:32

Sure.

Steve Dennis 25:32

Your take on things we should be looking out for going ahead or things that are kind of on your radar screen. But in particular, you know, as we start to come out of the depths of the COVID crisis, and so many retailers start to anniversary last year's numbers. One of things Michael, and I've talked about a couple of times is just how weird the comparisons are going to be and how hard,

Lauren Thomas  25:54

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  25:55

It might be to discern what, what good looks like. Are you worried about that? Do you think people should be really looking at these comparisons, say to 2019, as opposed to 2020?

Lauren Thomas  26:05

Yes.

Steve Dennis  26:06

How are you going.

Lauren Thomas  26:06

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  26:07

To work through that?

Lauren Thomas  26:08

So, top of mind, yeah, so, so glad you brought that up. Because we were literally having this discussion as a team internally this morning at CNBC. Because we've got, you know, I've got earnings later this week that I'm covering. So, we're kind of getting into the thick of this earning cycle again, and I think different companies are going to spin this different ways. So, I think it's, yeah, it's going to be especially important to kind of pay, you know, pay attention to the details. And you need that additional context. I think, like, you know, the companies that have done really well, for example, like Target and Walmart. I mean, it's, it's no surprise, they've, they've been very strong throughout this pandemic, you know, they've got a great, great presence online. And so that's benefited them, but people have still been going to their stores as well. 

And so, they had really strong numbers in 2020. So, now in 2021, they're lapping those 2020 numbers. So, I think we're starting to see some of those companies use these two years stack, you know, reporting on a two-year basis, because it's better for them to almost look at it that way. And, and because then if they're doing 2021 to 2020 comparison, the numbers this year, they're, they're likely not going to be as strong as what they saw last year, because last year was just an astronomically like a great year for them. So, they're comping that, that's tough. So, it's better for them and they could maybe tell the story better if they do it on this two-year basis. So comping 2019 which was more of a quote on quote "normal year" for them. 

But then you've got kind of the, the mall-based universe is how I might refer to it.  So apparel retailers for example, they didn't have a great 2020. So, when they report 2021 numbers, I mean you're going to see.

Michael LeBlanc  27:55

Homeruns every, homeruns every quarter.

Lauren Thomas  27:56

Double digits. Great growth. So, they don't

Michael LeBlanc  28:00

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas  28:00

I mean they don't need.

Michael LeBlanc  28:00

Yeah, yeah.

Lauren Thomas  28:01

To play around with this two year stack figure.

Michael LeBlanc  28:03

Right.

Lauren Thomas  28:03

Necessarily. So, it's yeah, I mean I think and everyone so far, I mean I've, I have listened to a few conference calls already and again, it depends on when retailer’s quarters and some of them are on a fiscal year. So, it's a little bit different but I mean they're all, they're all working through this a little bit differently. So, I, I saw someone tweet that they, they saw in a filing today like ex-pandemic revenue. Like I just feel like we're going to see so many different like figures and new terminology and companies are going to like try to play around with this. 

I mean it really it makes it hard for the analysts as well that are you know, they come up with their own estimates and you know, I don't know how they're, they're working through all this. So, I think some of that might be off. But I think bottom line it's like we're as reporters we're going to have to take this like company by company. 

Steve Dennis  28:55

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas  28:56

And like really read the whole release look at the you know, look at the charts versus, versus reading into to their language and how they phrase it I think to get the whole story of what's going on. Because I mean yeah up 20% kind of means nothing to me right unless I know like what happened last year. So,

Steve Dennis  29:15

Yeah.

Lauren Thomas  29:16

It's going to be tricky. Yeah.

Steve Dennis  29:17

Well, you've given me the idea now to quote my way ex-pandemic you know that will be.

Lauren Thomas  29:21

Yeah, honestly, yeah, you are not, you are not alone.

Steve Dennis  29:28

You know, obviously a lot of narrative around COVID maybe they affect of the stimulus checks those kinds of things any, anything else that we haven't talked about that's on your radar screen our listeners are saying, "Oh boy, this I think is super interesting and really start paying attention to this".

Lauren Thomas  29:44

Sure. Well, and again, and this, this might this isn't new per se, but I definitely think it's, it's important and it's something that I know Steve that you're watching too, and you've discussed at length. We have probably had conversations about it together and it is the state of malls, shopping malls, its one area that I've, I like to dive into at CNBC and cover that when I can. It's just you know as retailers are closing stores, you know what is happening to the quote unquote like mall blueprint.  It's not what it was a few decades ago. Not even what it was a year ago and so, just really continuing to follow, you know, we've seen some of these mall operators file for bankruptcy themselves during the pandemic because they've been hurt so much whether it's you know, rent checks are not coming in on time and that sort of thing. So, yeah, I think that's kind of a pocket within the, the retail coverage landscape you could say that I just find really interesting and I mean, at the end of the day these malls are often like a tax driver you know, a source of revenue for the communities.

Steve Dennis  30:48

Sure. Sure.

Lauren Thomas  30:48

That they're in so, there's huge ripple effects there. So, I think that's an area where it's worth staying on top of the rest of this year and beyond.

Steve Dennis  30:56

Well absolutely never, never a dull moment in retail. I used, I used to say one of the things I liked about retail was how dynamic it, it is and certainly.

Lauren Thomas  31:05

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  31:05

Last year has taught us it's hyper-dynamic or whatever.

Michael LeBlanc  31:05

Be careful what you wish for. 

Steve Dennis  31:09

You want to call it but.

Lauren Thomas  31:10

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  31:11

Well thanks so much Lauren for, for joining us I hope everybody.

Lauren Thomas 31:14

Of course.

Steve Dennis 31:14

If you haven't been following Lauren's work at CNBC you can go check that out any, any place else you'd like to point people to, to learn more about you and what you do.

Lauren Thomas  31:25

That's really the best I mean, I could, I could shout out you know, Twitter and LinkedIn I guess those are the two channels where I'm most prolific other than cnbc.com so, but yeah, you'll, you'll find it all there.

Steve Dennis  31:39

Excellent will also put links in the show notes thanks so much for joining us Lauren and have a good rest of your week.

Lauren Thomas  31:45

Thanks for having me. This is great.

Michael LeBlanc  31:47

All right, Steve that was a great interview. It is great to get the perspective of a, of as I said someone looking at the industry from the outside in and it's great for Lauren to take the time and chat with us.

Steve Dennis  31:58

Yeah, she's really, I mean it's pretty, pretty amazing how quickly she's gotten to this position and I think you know, you and I were talking off mic, about how helpful it is for you know it's a hard enough industry to learn anyway, and but those reporters that have the business background and are able to, to focus and get that you know, get up that learning curve quickly is a, is really helpful making sense of you know, particularly all the things that are going on in general but particularly the last year, year or so, so she does a great job of doing that so it's good to have her on.

Michael LeBlanc  32:34

Alright, we're back with Remarkable or Forgettable, Steve let's start with a red herring, 80,000 stores are closing the prediction the bold prediction, what do we think?

Steve Dennis  32:44

Well, I would call this remarkable because I think it's extremely misguided. Mainly, mainly from a logic standpoint, I certainly don't have the ability to really sit down and come up with my own exact number for how many stores are going to close in five years time but I think this approach which is I think a common one, basically, assumes that sales are migrating away from physical stores to online exclusively and then just tries to play with the math to say how many stores do we need to close for physical stores to hit a target sales productivity. And I think that's just fundamentally the wrong way to think about it. Not that a lot of stores aren't going to close but I think the role as we've talked about a few times. Now the role of physical stores in the overall brand experiences is important and that will keep the numbers of store closings to I think to a much, much lesser number than this estimate.

Michael LeBlanc  33:39

Well, let's talk at the other side of the coin because that's the part that sometimes doesn't make it into the media, but it's what drove you and I crazy about the whole retail apocalypse narrative was they looked at one side of the ledger and not the other. The store opening, so you know in the news alone this week we're hearing of Lululemon, we're hearing of Lego, we're hearing opening Urban Outfitters. What's going on there? They seem to be going in the opposite direction of this that, that sentiment.

Steve Dennis  34:01

Yeah. The reason I thought this was a particularly interesting, or remarkable, is that when we've talked about store openings. It has been a lot on the value side of the equation you know Dollar Stores, off price, the T.J. Maxx, Burlington, Ross. That's been the big driver, as well as a few retailers that just haven't expanded as far as they could. Like say a Tractor Supply or Dick's Sporting Goods. 

But, but these retailers, the Lululemon's, the Legos, the Urban Outfitters, you know, these aren't the value players these are the more upscale or specialty type players. And I think that just suggests there's, there's still a lot of room there for brands that have a really remarkable value proposition, executed well, where the integration or the blend of their stores and eCommerce is, is what makes them successful. So, I don't think this will be the last of some pretty significant names. We hear that they will be opening dozens, maybe even hundreds of stores.

Michael LeBlanc  34:56

Are malls in trouble?

Steve Dennis  34:57

Well, in total, I would say malls are in trouble. So the data was that the vacancy rate in the US went from 10.5% to 11.4%, which apparently was a record. Kind of lost in this whole discussion is that vacancies in malls in total have been going up since I think 2015-2016 something like that so, this is not, this is kind of forgettable and this is not really new news. And again this is one of the situations where you've got the so called "A" malls which are doing quite well and I think on average have like you know, 95-96% occupancy,

Michael LeBlanc 35:32

Yeah. They are very productive.

Steve Dennis 35:33

Yeah, very productive, attracting new clients, you know, new I mean, you know, there are pockets of difficulty for sure. I don't want to say like it's all rosy and, and certainly because COVID affected department stores and apparel retailer disproportionately. I think there's definitely.

Michael LeBlanc  35:47

And commuters, right because we have, we have a mall here in Toronto, Eaton Center, which has 55 million visitors, but a lot of them are, are because it's hooked up to the subway, right? It's a, it's a major artery. 

Steve Dennis  35:56

Yeah. 

Michael LeBlanc  35:56

And so, that's a bit of a challenge now and, and you know, with the slow, slower upstart to going back to work, that could be a challenge just, just because it is, right?  Just because that's the fundamental nature.

Steve Dennis  36:06

Yeah, so that's, I think, I mean, hopefully, a lot of that will start to come back next year. But I think it's really a tale of two cities. You got ‘A’ malls, which for the most part are fine even if they've taken kind of a short term hit.  Then you've got the ‘B’, ’C’ and ‘D’ malls, which for the most part, are in trouble. And so, I expect that you know, you really need to pay attention to which category of malls are we talking about? One thing that to keep in mind is that in the US, the ‘A’ malls are like I forget the exact number but something like 20% by count, but like 75% by volume.  So, that's another thing just to really pay attention to is you know, how much total square footage or how much volume does the contraction in malls really, really mean?

Michael LeBlanc  36:49

Well, speaking of contraction in malls, the news is that perhaps Amazon's going to buy some of these malls or and use them for distribution centers. Is that, does that make sense to you? Do you think that's a trend?

Steve Dennis  36:59

Well, I think that is something like 25 have already, or over the last couple of years have already happened. I still think this is mostly forgettable in that I don't think this is going to be a massive strategy. I think the thing that is true with a lot of malls is typically they're located close to highways, you know, they have good access, egress, egress, population density and a lot of things that are good characteristics for distribution centers, but they're often very difficult to work with because you have to spend a lot of money to get them to be reconfigured. You've got maybe you should.

Michael LeBlanc  37:33

Low ceilings, whatever. 

Steve Dennis  37:34

Yeah, yeah.  So,  I mean, you're, you're talking about some, some really complicated conversions. And often times, you know, the neighborhood's not super excited that you're going to be there; or the other retailers don't, don't want you there and that are nearby, traffic issues that kind of stuff.  So, so I think there are certainly will, there will continue to be opportunities basically where the land value is what they're going for, you're not going to bull doze this thing and as long as they can get through the community issues and you know, a lot of communities are going to want the tax dollars particularly if it's a really dead mall.

Michael LeBlanc  38:03

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  38:03

That hasn't been contributing. So, you know, my guess is this is you know, a dozen a year not suddenly you know, every, every mall that closes is going to be an Amazon center.

Michael LeBlanc  38:13

Let's talk about Best Buy, and by the way, just a nod to listeners, we're going to have Hubert Joly, the former CEO on very soon actually just talking about his, his new book. Best Buy announced a membership program, we've seen these before, of course, Costco, you know, to Amazon Prime to you know, many people launching loyalty programs that are really wrapped around a membership program. What do you think of this initiative?

Steve Dennis  38:33

Well, I think it's pretty interesting. I mean, right now, I think it's only like 40-50, stores, something like that, a few cities so, it's kind of hard to declare this remarkable at this point. But I think it's $199 you get free shipping, you get some tech support and warranty, you know, extended warranties wrapped in. I think there's a lot of interest for good reason in, in creating these bundles, or Scott Galloway calls them rundles where you have got.

Michael Leblanc 38.57

It’s a rundle.

Steve Dennis 38:57

Recurring revenue. So, the ability to lock in the customer. Yeah, I think can be powerful. But there are only a few retailers, I think that can really pull this off. You know, you have to really be spending a fair amount of dollars, whether that's frequently you know, which works for.

Michael LeBlanc 39:04

Yeah.

Steve Dennis  39:15

Walmart Plus, Amazon, Costco, or a lot of dollars, which can definitely work for Best Buy and Restoration Hardware has got a membership type program as well, where you get discounts. So, I think, interesting, potentially remarkable as a strategy for most retailers, I think it's pretty limited to some of the really big guys.

Michael LeBlanc  39:34

All right, last thing target is allocated $2 billion to Black owned businesses. What do you think of that? That's, that's, that's a great announcement.

Steve Dennis  39:43

Yeah, I think it's, it's remarkable. I mean, first of all, it's obviously a ton of money. Secondly, I think, you know, it's part of a I mean, we've seen a lot of initiatives around diversity, equity, and inclusion. So, I think as an investor relations, public relations strategy as well it's just the right thing to do. I think, I think it's terrific. And I, I really like when companies that are well known certainly get out there and make a statement about important issues because I think that will encourage other companies to look at it and perhaps.

Michael LeBlanc  40:14

Right.

Steve Dennis  40:14

Follow them, you know, sometimes for the wrong reason. Maybe they just do it because they feel like they have to. But fundamentally, I think Target's been a big leader in community and Public Affairs. And this is just another good example. So I think it's great.

Michael LeBlanc  40:26

All right, well, that was another edition of Remarkable or Forgettable.

Michael LeBlanc  40:38

Another great episode, Steve, take us home.

Steve Dennis  40:41

Well, if you liked what you heard, please follow us on your favorite podcast platform so you can catch up with all our great interviews and insights and new episodes will show up every week. And please take a minute to drop us that elusive five star rating. I'm Steve Dennis, for my latest insights, follow me on Twitter and LinkedIn. And be sure to order your copy of the Second Edition of Remarkable Retail from just about anywhere books are sold.

Michael LeBlanc  41:05

And I'm Michael Leblanc, Producer and Host of The Voice of Retail podcast. You can learn more about me on www.meleblanc.co.  Steve, have a great week.

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

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