Amazon posts numbers that should worry every competitor. Shopify keeps surging. Luxury proves anything but evenly distributed. Steve and Michael break down Wayfair's turnaround, Warby Parker's mixed quarter, tariff rebates, and whether live selling has finally found its moment. Plus: live from the CommerceNext Growth Show, Wharton's Kartik Hosanagar argues AI isn't a new channel, it's a new customer — and why retailers have to pick between efficiency and meaning and not get stuck in the murky middle.
Amazon keeps raising the bar. Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc open with the retailer's blockbuster quarter: massive gains in AWS and advertising, staggering AI capex, and retail revenue up 16% year over year, up from 12% last year. Third-party sellers now drive more than 60% of the business, and Citi pegs underlying GMV growth near 10%, roughly double the industry average. Amazon's B2B division alone now tops $60 billion, bigger than all but eleven U.S. retailers. Then the hosts dig into the agentic commerce numbers Amazon disclosed as Rufus folds into Alexa shopping, why sample bias demands caution here, and how grocery momentum is turning Amazon into a mega market-share threat.
Then: Shopify's revenue up 32%, and the tale-of-two-cities reality that a handful of giants now drive nearly all e-commerce growth. A mid-year check on Steve's Prediction #8 — luxury's future won't be evenly distributed. LVMH, Kering, and Capri lag on China softness and war induced Gulf weakness, while Hermès, Ralph Lauren, Richemont, and Zegna keep delivering outsized results.
Live from the CommerceNext Growth Show: Kartik Hosanagar. He's Wharton's John C. Hower Professor of Technology and Digital Business, author of A Human's Guide to Machine Intelligence, and co-founder of Bliss Labs. His argument: the biggest shift in retail isn't a new technology or channel. It's a new customer. Treating AI as another distribution channel is the same mistake movie studios made with Netflix.
There's no marketing science for AI yet. $9.99 pricing, scarcity, social proof — a model may not respond to any of it. Kartik walks through the Ridge wallet case: invisible in ChatGPT's "gifts for men" results, then the default recommendation within three weeks, complete with a hallucinated promotion. Every retailer faces the same fork: efficiency or meaning. The middle is the most dangerous place to stand.
Kartik also details the simulation sandboxes that let brands test counterfactuals in a day instead of eight weeks, why you can't just ask an LLM why it picked a brand, and the three attitudes retailers need now: curious, experimental, collaborative
Back in studio: Wayfair's encouraging quarter and Steve's change of heart, Warby Parker's mixed report as store count passes 400, tariff rebates ($100 billion of $160 billion already repaid, more tariffs looming), and whether live selling has hit its tipping point with QVC out of bankruptcy and Whatnot valued at $20 billion.