With a return edition of "The Analysts," we welcome Forrester VP & Principal Analyst Sucharita Kodali and GlobalData Retail's Managing Director Neil Saunders. Together, they explore surprisingly strong U.S. sales numbers, the gap between consumer sentiment and spending, tariff impacts, and the state of iconic bran retail turnaround stories. The panel also tackles AI’s evolving role in retail, Amazon’s logistics dominance, and what to expect for holiday 2025.
This week's episode marks the second edition of "The Analysts" once again bringing together the sharpest minds in global retail. This time we welcome Sucharita Kodali, Vice President & Principal Analyst at Forrester Research, and Neil Saunders, Managing Director at GlobalData Retail for a lively, insight rich discussion about the future of retail.
The episode kicks off with U.S. retail sales results from the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor and the US Census Bureau, which showed surprisingly strong growth despite inflation, tariffs, and shaky consumer sentiment. Neil and Sucharita explain why inflation-adjusted numbers tell a more modest story, while digging into the growing disconnect between historically low consumer confidence and healthy sales. They highlight how wealth concentration and media filter bubbles distort the economic picture, making retail performance appear stronger or weaker depending on perspective.
"The Analysts" then turn to the state of mega-brand retail turnarounds. Neil delivers a tough assessment of Kohl’s—calling it the “turnaround that never happened”—while offering cautious optimism on Macy’s and Gap, which are showing small but real signs of progress. Sucharita points to structural weaknesses in department stores but also notes resilience in Walmart, Costco, and dollar stores. Together, they weigh how tariffs, operational missteps, and consumer shifts complicate recovery.
Next up: AI in retail. Sucharita underscores that artificial intelligence isn’t new—retailers have relied on it for years in pricing, supply chain, and labor planning. The novelty lies in generative AI and so-called “agentic AI,” which she characterizes as incremental rather than revolutionary thus far. The panel agrees that while these tools can deliver efficiency, they’re unlikely to transform the top or bottom line soon—though Amazon’s deep AI and automation investments continue to give it a strategic edge.
Looking ahead, holiday forecasts are mixed. Deloitte predicts growth under 3.5%, while eMarketer forecasts just 1.2%. Neil and Sucharita expect more resilience driven by consumers’ determination to celebrate. The panel also highlights Amazon’s bold logistics move to fulfill orders for Walmart and Shein, underscoring its unmatched infrastructure advantage.
The discussion closes with Steve, Michael, Neil and Sucharita each offering what's on their radar screen, including Saks Global’s financial turbulence, macroeconomic signals like inflation and jobs data, and AI’s potential labor impacts.