Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc kick off 2026 by unpacking the latest retail headlines—from holiday sales and slowing job growth to looming bankruptcies and tariff decision uncertainty—before welcoming back guest Simeon Siegel of Guggenheim Partners and Sucharita Kodali of Forrester for another edition of The Analysts. The conversation cuts through macro noise to focus on execution, market share shifts, e-commerce maturity, AI realism, along with key perspectives on Saks looming bankruptcy and the state of turnarounds at Nike, Gap, and Target.
Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc open the first episode of 2026 with a clear-eyed look at the retail news shaping the year ahead. Holiday sales landed largely as expected. Online sales grew faster, but at a decelerating pace, reinforcing the continued centrality of stores—particularly as click-and-collect represented a meaningful share of holiday fulfillment. The hosts also dig into sector-level performance, noting continued softness in big-ticket home categories alongside strength in apparel, beauty, and sporting goods.
Attention then turns to structural stress in retail. The looming Chapter 11 filing of Saks Global underscores the limits of debt-heavy consolidation strategies and the difficulty of rationalizing oversized store portfolios. Steve outlines why store closures, vendor confidence, and new leadership will be critical to any successful reorganization. The news segment closes with a sobering look at U.S. job growth, which has slowed sharply, particularly in retail and manufacturing. While unemployment remains low, constrained labor supply and weak hiring momentum raise important questions for 2026.
From there, the episode shifts to a wide-ranging discussion with The Analysts, this time featuring Simeon Siegel, Senior Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, and Sucharita Kodali, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester. Reflecting on 2025, both describe a year marked by cognitive dissonance: record retail spending alongside low consumer confidence and wildly uneven outcomes. Rather than a simple “K-shaped” economy, Simeon argues that execution matters most, pointing to stark performance differences between retailers selling similar products to similar customers.
The Analysts explore where market share is truly shifting, why off-price and value leaders continue to gain ground, and how e-commerce growth is normalizing as the channel matures. Sucharita explains why physical retail remains resilient in the U.S., while Simeon adds that rising friction—fees, returns, and fulfillment costs—has dulled some of e-commerce’s original advantages. The conversation also tackles tariffs, AI, and technology hype.
The episode concludes with Steve and Michael's perspectives on Amazon's surprising new physical retail stores plans and a possibly big Supreme Court ruling on tariff policy.