Recorded live at the CommerceNext Growth Show in New York, Ulta Beauty Chief Retail Officer Amiee Bayer-Thomas explains why stores are queen, how 47 million loyalty members shop, and what a Gen Alpha study reveals about AI natives. Plus: a new tariff regime, strong June retail sales, grocery's unit decline, Albertsons' 20% stock drop, Wayfair's store expansion, Shein's Hong Kong IPO, and why flat population growth turns retail into a share fight.
Steve Dennis and Michael LeBlanc open episode 308 with a check on Steve's number one prediction for 2026 — uncertainty reigns supreme — and it's holding up. The flat 10% global tariff is gone, replaced by a 10–12.5% range on nearly all U.S. imports, with steeper rates for Canada and Brazil. The new forced-labor justification behind the increases strikes Steve and Michael as ridiculous and unlikely to survive a court challenge.
The retail numbers look better than the tariff logic. June retail sales rose 5.7% year over year, led by sporting goods (a World Cup bump) and electronics. Grocery managed just 1%. Steve walks through why: dollars flat, units falling, prices 33% above pre-COVID levels, food bank use climbing on both sides of the border. Albertsons is the clearest case — sales nearly flat, guidance cut, stock down 20% in a day.
Then, recorded live in the pop-up studio at the CommerceNext Growth Show in New York, Ulta Beauty Chief Retail Officer Amiee Bayer-Thomas argues stores are queen. Thirty years into a career she calls a lattice rather than a ladder — seven roles at Ulta alone, including chief supply chain officer through 2020 — she now owns everything from site selection and store design to services, asset protection, eventing, and the omni guest journey.
Stores, she says, are experiential hubs delivering "beautytainment" through 60,000 associates across 1,500 locations. The numbers: 47 million loyalty members, 95% of whom shopped in-store last year. A NielsenIQ study of Gen Alpha found the most AI-engaged shoppers still pick stores over apps, 57% versus 36%. Amiee's take on AI: it's an "and," not an "or." Technology can flag a replenishment; only an associate reads the confusion on a guest's face in the skincare aisle. Omni guests visit and spend three times more. She previews a Times Square flagship alongside outlet and small-format stores, plus an eventing calendar headed toward 140,000 events this year.
In the news, Wayfair is expanding its store footprint. Shein is heading toward a Hong Kong listing at roughly half its 2022 valuation. Also on the radar: fuel costs rising again as back-to-school and holiday approach, and U.S. population growth of 0.25% turning retail into a fight over share.